- Rees-Mogg will go
- Don’t be surprised if Braverman does also - it’s a new seat and prime LD counter-attack territory but on balance she should just about hold it
- Francois and Patel will hold on
- Truss is an interesting one. There’s a third party candidate emerging. There could be unique circumstances there.
- Badenoch will hold Saffron Walden
- Despite what has been written I would be astonished if Sunak loses in Richmond and Northallerton but he could have a recount. If the Tories go down in North Yorkshire it will truly be their end of days.
- Suspect Hunt and Gove will both go
- IDS is gone gone in Chingford. Tories may lose almost everything in London including Cities of London and Westminster, Kensington, and Chelsea and Fulham (some of these seats are being re-drawn significantly anyway as London gains extra districts)
- Morduant is gone in Portsmouth North
Any I forgot?