2024 US Presidential Election

joanne said:
i hope you're right, but i have a bad feeling about this election. i have been avoiding it like the plague because Americans have been consistently making bad choices since they let Run Away With Me by Ms. Rae Jepsen flop. it's just gone downhill since then.
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True! Before that, America never did any harm at all
 
My biggest worry is turnout from the Democrat side. Biden only wins if enough people actively vote against Trump, which is always tougher in a change vs consensus election.
 
KindaCool said:
I suspect a lot of people will be actively voting against Biden too.
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Who would do this, who wasn’t already a Republican/trump supporter. Some wont vote at all, but who is changing their vote to trump?
 
To clarify, I don’t mean because I think it’s ridiculous, I mean which demographic of people are “voting against Biden” who aren’t already going to vote for Trump
 
Just my thoughts, but I think anyone who's more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause than the Israeli one. Not that Trump will necessary give them their favored alternative, but many see Biden as having blood on his hands.

Also, Biden's approach to border control has been widely criticized and may push some voters towards Trump.

But who knows. Partisan politics were playing a bigger role than ever before.
 
I also find it interesting that this election we will be able to compare two terms together. We have a returning single-term President running against a current single-term President. That's quite rare.

Trump will no longer have the luxury of being purely on the offensive like he did in 2016.
 
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I doubt there's a very large population of people who fall under the banner of Pro-Palestine AND Pro-Trump. That doesn't make any sense.
 
The only thing I can think of re Israel is that it might put Florida out of reach, but it was becoming a harder win for Democrats with every passing election anyway. Democrats have more options in the South than they had 20 years ago, they can win without Florida.
 
KindaCool said:
Just my thoughts, but I think anyone who's more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause than the Israeli one. Not that Trump will necessary give them their favored alternative, but many see Biden as having blood on his hands.

Also, Biden's approach to border control has been widely criticized and may push some voters towards Trump.

But who knows. Partisan politics were playing a bigger role than ever before.
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With Palestine, I can see some not voting, but anyone who thinks a vote for Trump is good for Palestinians (or literally anyone) is a fucking idiot
 
Funky said:
The only thing I can think of re Israel is that it might put Florida out of reach, but it was becoming a harder win for Democrats with every passing election anyway. Democrats have more options in the South than they had 20 years ago, they can win without Florida.
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Why would Israel/gaza influence Florida in particular? If anything, I think the large elderly vote would be particularly pro-Israel.

Not that I think Biden has a chance in Florida anyway.
 
RJN said:
Why would Israel/gaza influence Florida in particular? If anything, I think the large elderly vote would be particularly pro-Israel.

Not that I think Biden has a chance in Florida anyway.
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It's all a bit Book Of Stats but from the few things I've read and heard, the traditional older Jewish demo don't think Biden is doing enough. That's the trouble with wars; republican governments get a boost while democratic governments are damned if they do and damned if they don't.
 
Funky said:
It's all a bit Book Of Stats but from the few things I've read and heard, the traditional older Jewish demo don't think Biden is doing enough. That's the trouble with wars; republican governments get a boost while democratic governments are damned if they do and damned if they don't.
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Interesting, because I think the older Jewish vote is going to help Biden a lot in Florida (and in general) :D

Among Jewish voters, about 70% are Democrats, and I think a good 60-65% of them would never vote for a Republican under any circumstance (for non Israel reasons). There are some that could be swayed, but the sentiment I've seen (in real life and on the internet) has been very positive towards Biden's handling of the war. And most who don't approve (including myself and a lot of my close friends), think he's not restraining Israel enough and would never vote for Trump.

Most American Jews (unlike Israels and I think British Jews) are very liberal socially and find the modern Evangelical/Trumpy Republican party super off putting. And that includes older people
 
RJN said:
Interesting, because I think the older Jewish vote is going to help Biden a lot in Florida (and in general) :D

Among Jewish voters, about 70% are Democrats, and I think a good 60-65% of them would never vote for a Republican under any circumstance (for non Israel reasons). There are some that could be swayed, but the sentiment I've seen (in real life and on the internet) has been very positive towards Biden's handling of the war. And most who don't approve (including myself and a lot of my close friends), think he's not restraining Israel enough and would never vote for Trump.

Most American Jews (unlike Israels and I think British Jews) are very liberal socially and find the modern Evangelical/Trumpy Republican party super off putting. And that includes older people
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That's reassuring. Because unfortunately all my Jewish American friends have elderly parents and they're all in Florida retirement villages and they all support Trump :D naturally my friends are all horrified but I think it's more to do with being old and rich than being Jewish.
 
RJN said:
With Palestine, I can see some not voting, but anyone who thinks a vote for Trump is good for Palestinians (or literally anyone) is a fucking idiot
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i feel as though his vague stance on the war, where he both supports Israel, yet calls Bibi stupid and Hezbollah smart, might delude many people into thinking he's a better alternative than Biden. of course, the Democrats are known for having notoriously bombed the crap out of the Middle East in recent memory. Republicans believe Trump is going to reduce US involvement in the Middle East which would of course help him.

i'm willing to bet good money that Trump is winning. maybe i'm just trying to prepare myself for the worst-case scenario so a Trump win wouldn't hit me as hard as it did in 2016.
 
joanne said:
i feel as though his vague stance on the war, where he both supports Israel, yet calls Bibi stupid and Hezbollah smart, might delude many people into thinking he's a better alternative than Biden. of course, the Democrats are known for having notoriously bombed the crap out of the Middle East in recent memory. Republicans believe Trump is going to reduce US involvement in the Middle East which would of course help him.
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That’s the scariest thing about Trump. That he has somehow convinced people that he is going to spread peace and stability. And that he is so vague sometimes that people read whatever they want into him
 
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:ToneNervous: :ToneNervous:

I really worry we are currently in peak "What went wrong for Biden?" territory. GET RID WHILST YOU STILL CAN.
 
If they were to get rid, who would be the replacement? Is there any polling on Newsom v Trump?
 
I fear it's probably too late now and we're just going to have to rely on more of the public actively voting for the man who obviously won't finish his term vs the tinpot dictator.

But I imagine Newsom or Harris would be the obvious options. The latter seems to have been getting a lot more of a push recently in terms of bigging up her role. As I've mentioned before she's really not great at media stuff, but at this stage not being in the early stages of dementia has got to be considered a net positive, and she'd be the smoothest transition as a continuity candidate if Biden saw sense and stepped aside...
 
The Democratic National Convention is the proper point of no return, but I agree the longer they leave it the more damage is done to the Democrat brand generally, and the less time a successor, especially a non-Harris successor, has to establish themselves.
 
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my gut feeling only, but I think Kamala Harris would do worse than Biden
 
I think Gretchen Whitmer would be the best choice but seems like that ship has sailed.
 
RJN said:
my gut feeling only, but I think Kamala Harris would do worse than Biden
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this. she hasn't been prepared for the role at all. many in her own party have no confidence in her. it would be absurd to think she wouldn't get completely battered.

Biden is their candidate and just seems, as he always has been, to be gaffe prone! this isn't new and it isn't news. I don't think he has dementia or any cognitive difficulty. he just says the wrong word sometimes!
 
what he SHOULD do is put a new VP on the ticket, somebody to energise voters a bit, and then if reelected spend two years preparing for a transition of power and give them another two years in office before the next election. maybe Gretchen Whitmer would be a good choice indeed.
 
They should run someone else as president and keep Kamala as VP (if not get rid of her as well). He is hemorrhaging in all battleground states and I don't know how he can reverse that.
 
Given the stark drop in support among black voters, I don't think replacing Kamala with a white woman would be great optics. :D
 
I’d rather Manchin than Trump of course but still, gross. I do think Whitmer would end up doing the best, between her, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, and Pete
 
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