The By-elections Thread: 2025-2029 edition

VoR

VoR

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We've got our first one of the current government almost certainly coming up, as Mike Amesbury, the Labour MP for Runcorn & Helsby has just been jailed for 10 weeks for assault.

www.theguardian.com

MP Mike Amesbury sentenced to 10 weeks in prison for assault

Amesbury, 55, admitted the charge after punching a man to the ground on a night out in Frodsham, Cheshire
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

It was a solid Labour win last year, 14,696 majority. Plus the North West is generally strong for Labour. But Reform came second and will doubtless be throwing everything they have at it. :zombie:
 
Labour will hold the seat by less than 1000 votes and take it as a trigger to go even further right.
 
We’ll have to wait a while first for any appeals to be dismissed, and then after that comes the six week recall petition.
 
Oh you know this thread is going to be filled with such horrors over the coming years
 
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Initial polling suggests Reform will take the seat :bruised:

Reform are ahead of Labour by 40% to 35% when we weight respondents according to their stated likelihood to turn out and vote at the by-election, with the Conservatives in third place on 10%. This represents a 20% swing from Labour to Reform since the general election.

However, when we include only those who say they are certain to vote, the Reform lead rises to 9 points (42% to 33%) – a 22% swing since July.

Only just over half (55%) of Labour’s general election voters say they will definitely vote, compared to 78% of 2024 Reform voters and 70% of Tories. Labour’s chances of holding the seat therefore depend on persuading as many of possible of their supporters from last July to return to the ballot box.
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1370.jpg
 
Is it too late for Labour to court the Reform vote by standing the guy who got rat-arsed and decked a constituent?
 
GNL said:
Is it too late for Labour to court the Reform vote by standing the guy who got rat-arsed and decked a constituent?
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Unfortunately, the constituent was white so it wouldn't work.
 
Just a local council by election but fuck



This is my childhood born seat and where I first voted, Safe Lib Dem in a Labour town and it’s just gone Reform

I feel sick
 
That cunt Andrea Jenkyns using her mayoral win speech to act like she’s just won a general election :manson: Stupid sods.
 
ZenGiraffe said:
I wonder what lesson Labour will learn from this :eyes:
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Whilst I agree entirely with this, by the same note, will this make the left wing of the party actually do something or just allow this to happen on a bigger scale with a sense of schadenfreude about the whole thing?
 
Sheena said:
Whilst I agree entirely with this, by the same note, will this make the left wing of the party actually do something or just allow this to happen on a bigger scale with a sense of schadenfreude about the whole thing?
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WHAT LEFT WING?

(They'll have the whip withdrawn if they so much as BREATHE)
 
ZenGiraffe said:
WHAT LEFT WING?

(They'll have the whip withdrawn if they so much as BREATHE)
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I meant the voters.

WHATEVER you may think of Labour, there is no doubt Reform is far more mobilised than the left wing voters of the party. Losing by six votes is down to two things- Labour (admittedly) being shit, but the Momentum side of the party sitting it out.

Do I want to vote for Labour right now? Fuck no, they're SHIT, but am I petrified about the alternative enough to do so? Absofuckinglutely.
 
Sheena said:
I meant the voters.

WHATEVER you may think of Labour, there is no doubt Reform is far more mobilised than the left wing voters of the party. Losing by six votes is down to two things- Labour (admittedly) being shit, but the Momentum side of the party sitting it out.

Do I want to vote for Labour right now? Fuck no, they're SHIT, but am I petrified about the alternative enough to do so? Absofuckinglutely.
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They should say the very least be voting green rather than sitting it out. I'm sad to see their share of the vote only increased by 0.7%
 
ZenGiraffe said:
Is this before or after he scraps their car?
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Can I point out that, whilst the car crushing policy is silly, it’s not unprecedentedly silly. They’ve been crushing cars seized from people who don’t have insurance for years, as an example.
 
ZenGiraffe said:
They should say the very least be voting green rather than sitting it out. I'm sad to see their share of the vote only increased by 0.7%
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Kinda my point. I don't see that vote going anywhere else.

Though, to be fair, there's an argument that, currently, there's nowhere else for it to actually go.
 
The West of England Mayoral election was a weird one. It was supposed to be Green vs Reform but Labour wound up edging it with the Greens down in third…

 
I find West of England difficult to call as although Bristol is very much Green/Labour, a lot of the seat and half the electorate is more surrounding small towns and rural. The Labour leaflet we received a week or two ago was very much 'vote anyone else, get Reform' though, which I scoffed at after seeing the poll last week, but convinced Mr L to vote Labour.

That's not to say I don't think there will have been some kickback in Bristol, particularly in view of some city council decisions and issues, but I suspect Reform did better outside of the city.

The absolute ignorance of what the West Of England Combined Authority is, or is responsible for, is staggering though - most obviously from the gammon and their STOP THE BOATS comments on all social media coverage.
 
Labour should ask themselves - statistically - how many of the voters in this by-election would have been disabled, or a close family member of somebody with a disability? How many would have been trans people? Is there value, perhaps, in treating people who have traditionally voted Labour with dignity?

But I suspect they'll just send Wes Streeting to Dover to lob stones at passing boats with any suspiciously tanned passengers instead.
 
GNL said:
Labour should ask themselves - statistically - how many of the voters in this by-election would have been disabled, or a close family member of somebody with a disability? How many would have been trans people? Is there value, perhaps, in treating people who have traditionally voted Labour with dignity?

But I suspect they'll just send Wes Streeting to Dover to lob stones at passing boats with any suspiciously tanned passengers instead.
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If the "hold your nose and vote Labour" crew are still in charge, they will be telling people that they were fools not to vote for their own persecution.
 
Well, as this is just for councillors, this could be their big chance to prove themselves as actually caring about their local communities. Start small and all that.

One of my friends at work is a Lib Dem Councillor in his area (not in London) and he was showing me their Reform candidate who actually posted on Facebook, as a new “I’m not racist but…” type statement, by saying that he grew up in Hackney, likes eating curry and has an autistic grandchild. Within days this guy was already having petty arguments and being aggressive in response to perfectly polite questions.
 
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