Yep, with the usual bonkers swings! Government already holds the parent parliamentary seat.Oh, it's a council by-election apparently?
There is a non-local by-election occurring today. The North Yorkshire PCC election
Ah yes my folks got a leaflet. Caused by the resignation of the incumbent for some truly horrible comments following Sarah Everard’s murder.There is a non-local by-election occurring today. The North Yorkshire PCC election
Reform UK - the changed name of the Brexit Party. It's led by the guy who was the candidate in Bexley, Richard Tice (long-time Brexit loudmouth who used to be in the property industry and who was one of Nigel Farage's few trusted confidants).What’s REFUK?
I guess it’s not something as exciting as fucking someone a second time
Reform UK - the changed name of the Brexit Party. It's led by the guy who was the candidate in Bexley, Richard Tice (long-time Brexit loudmouth who used to be in the property industry and who was one of Nigel Farage's few trusted confidants).
The other thing that's quite interesting about this result - and the ones in other by-elections in this parliament (even Hartlepool!) - is that the Labour, Lib Dem, and Green vote looks like it's getting very efficient at rallying behind the most likely challenger to the Tories whenever an election comes up, with the other two getting squeezed right down.I’d say there is a good chance North Shropshire will go LD on that basis.
The other thing that's quite interesting about this result - and the ones in other by-elections in this parliament (even Hartlepool!) - is that the Labour, Lib Dem, and Green vote looks like it's getting very efficient at rallying behind the most likely challenger to the Tories whenever an election comes up, with the other two getting squeezed right down.
Very positive for North Shropshire, and also for the anti-Tory challengers in general (not quite as purist as the Navalny-esque 'smart voting' strategy @Loufoque mentioned earlier in the thread as obv you're probably not gonna get Reform UK voters behind any of the left parties, but certainly not far off)
I'm sorry, I don't understand betting markets (I'm homosexual), so what is this showing? Are they thinking a Lib Dem victory is becoming more likely?
Yes ! Was 5 to 1 a few weeks ago !I'm sorry, I don't understand betting markets (I'm homosexual), so what is this showing? Are they thinking a Lib Dem victory is becoming more likely?
But only a 63% implied probabilityStill a likely Tory hold then
After yesterday? I mean, it'll probably be a value bet by lunchtime but I wouldn't take it at the value quoted just thenStill a likely Tory hold then
There isn’t enough data out there to move the betting markets so dramatically that the Tories aren’t favourites to win in a seat like this, but the anecdotes on the ground suggest it looks bad. I think it is gone myself.Still a likely Tory hold then
CRINGE ALERT