The By-elections Thread - 2019-2024 edition

Madison

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We have our first by-election of the Parliament.

It’s an interesting one - Hartlepool - with an annoying strong possibility of a Tory gain. Get ready for people to be banging on about the Red Wall and Sir Keir Starmer for a while:

 

Madison

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I imagine it will HOLD.
It has the second highest combined Con + Brexit % in a 2019 Labour seat.

Chancellor annoying kept banging on about the Tees Valley in the budget. It’s such an annoying location to have a by-election.
 

Indie

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Checked the betting markets - conservatives are favourites there.

With the vaccine bounce it really is a bad time for Labour to have a by-election.
 

Kate

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No point voting Brexit Party any more, so yeah those 10,000 votes are totally going Tory aren't they :manson:
 

Ag

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Looking at the last two elections, it appears Tories, Labour and UKIP all fed into Brexit Party vote there. There'll probably be a Reform Party candidate. It will be close.
 

Lucille

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It's annoying how ONE thing goes right for this SHAMBOLIC government and everyone forgets how fucking INCOMPETENT they are at EVERY THING ELSE, or DON'T ACTUALLY CARE, because deep down they just WANT A FAR RIGHT GOVERNMENT.
 

Ag

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I can't see the Reform Party scooping up that much vote. The Brexit thing really was a one-issue thing. I'm sure they'll find something that sticks soon enough, but nothing quite as big as Brexit.
 

dmlaw

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These are very happy fish, delighted that they are rotting on a BRITISH dock.
 

Iguana

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The Labour candidate is an "outspoken" (not sure what that means exactly, he just said his preference probably) Remain supporter who yesterday apologised for historic misogynistic tweets. I don't know what the tweets were
 

COB

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The Labour candidate is an "outspoken" (not sure what that means exactly, he just said his preference probably) Remain supporter
I read that he was deleting old tweets where talked about wanting to cancel Brexit, and has been very vocal about Rejoin/a second referendum etc. That's all well and good, but will it go down well in Hartlepool?
 

Penelope

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To be honest, if the Tories plan on spending a whole by election just screaming HE VOTED REMAIN when Brexit is done (and not exactly going perfectly!) and the Labour campaign is based around a doctor and nurses only getting a 1% pay rise.......I mean, that could go the way the Tories want, but I'm really not sure at all it's going to go the way the Tories want.
 

Iguana

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I think it's actually some Labour figureheads coming at Paul Williams at the moment.

Eg Shami Chakrabarti:

"I've been very clear in the past about Donald Trump and the sort of stuff he's tweeted. There's particular misogynistic, obscene tweet from this candidate that I was only made aware of this evening after the BBC reported it. Completely unacceptable, misogynistic, abusive. We need to change that candidate immediately."
 

dmlaw

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If this sort of tweet is disqualifying, I strongly suspect that we won't get very many MPs who haven't actively avoided all use of the Internet over the last twenty years.
 

Penelope

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Pffft, Labour figurehead :D She's made herself into a joke the last five years given the glittering rep she had and seems to be continuing in that mould
 

COB

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Aside from this, wasn't this guy a non-resident that was parachuted in without much in the way of a transparent selection process? I'm not saying either of those things are disqualifying, but they don't particularly look great.
 

dmlaw

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I think the only way that any of us will gain power is by staging a coup. One worry is that @Suomi has already called shotgun for the position of God-Emperor.
 

Penelope

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Aside from this, wasn't this guy a non-resident that was parachuted in without much in the way of a transparent selection process? I'm not saying either of those things are disqualifying, but they don't particularly look great.
Yes, but to be fair he does work as a doctor in Hartlepool
 

Madison

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By-election number two: Airdrie & Shotts

SNP’s Neil Gray has resigned (as expected) ahead of contesting a seat at Scottish election.

Labour in second place. It was Labour until 2015. Healthy SNP majorities of 9,000 and 5,000 in 2015 and 2019, but only 195 in 2017.
 

Madison

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(Depending on election results or criminal trials, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see future by-elections in the following: Birmingham Hodge Hill, Batley & Spen, Moray, Rutherglen & Hamilton West, Leicester East, and Poplar.)
 

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