Far right party wins Dutch Elections

I'm trying to look at the different parties, and there are just so many of them... What does this mean in terms of a coalition. 35 seats isn't even a quarter of them
 
Most of the other parties had ruled out a coaltion with them, but this result is a huge shock. They were expected to top out around 20-25 seats max. A victory this resounding will put pressure on the other right-leaning parties to work with them. Difficult to imagine Geert Wilders not being the next Prime Minister.
 
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VoR said:
Most of the other parties had ruled out a coaltion with them, but this result is a huge shock. They were expected to top out around 20-25 seats max.
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this is not true, yesterday they were polling at 28 seats which had them leading or joint leading.

VVD (the outgoing leader of the coalition) has effectively ruled out a coalition with PVV. it's far from a done deal that he will be able to form a government - it really depends how many of the minority parties he can scoop up.

last time it took 271 days to form a government post election so don't expect anything any time soon.
 
RJN said:
I'm trying to look at the different parties, and there are just so many of them... What does this mean in terms of a coalition. 35 seats isn't even a quarter of them
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76 seats are needed for a coalition. current estimates have PVV and the right leaning parties at 63.

the Dutch system is extremely fragmented with so many parties, the party that came 4th was created only this summer.

it can't be denied though that this is a horrible result and quite a shock in a place like Amsterdam which has major lefty liberal bubble vibes. it's hard to take the temperature on how people in the country feel, almost everybody you talk to here is disgusted by Wilders and sees him as a (nasty) joke.
 
Jark said:
it can't be denied though that this is a horrible result and quite a shock in a place like Amsterdam which has major lefty liberal bubble vibes. it's hard to take the temperature on how people in the country feel, almost everybody you talk to here is disgusted by Wilders and sees him as a (nasty) joke.
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well this is sadly relatable...
 
Netherlands prides itself on being a "tolerant" society (a very different thing from actively embracing minorities) so it's a shock that somebody vocally anti Islam has done so well. it was only 20 years ago that a high profile candidate with very similar views was assassinated one week before the election.

populism is often spoken about as a monolith but the way it taps into societal concerns varies vastly from country to country. immigration is not a huge crisis here as in Italy, for example, where populists also got elected — the big political crisis here is an extreme shortage of housing, sky high rents and mortgages in flux.

however there is the sense of exhaustion around politics often found in countries that go populist (voter turnout relatively low this time), after a PM who survived 13 years and rode out endless scandals. people "want a change" and turn to the person who seems different (despite being a political heavyweight). like Meloni, he also indulged in some image rehab and toned down his rhetoric a bit this year.
 
Aside from the era of populism, where the lines of celebrity and politician are now blurred and human brands are more important than manifestos and laws, is this all because of the growing number of older people in society? They all vote, they mostly hate liberal politics. They're all terrified of foreigners. They come from a time where you believed what the papers were telling you.

More and more, older people are leaving a shitstorm for their grandchildren. How do you break the wheel?
 
funky said:
Aside from the era of populism, where the lines of celebrity and politician are now blurred and human brands are more important than manifestos and laws, is this all because of the growing number of older people in society? They all vote, they mostly hate liberal politics. They're all terrified of foreigners. They come from a time where you believed what the papers were telling you.

More and more, older people are leaving a shitstorm for their grandchildren. How do you break the wheel?
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I think this is true in a way but the demographics will show support across the board. the old alone don't win you 25% of all available seats.

the young and younger-middle aged of the Netherlands actually indulged quite heavily in covid related conspiracy theories. both of my under 40 cousins (who are Dutch) refused to get vaccinated. I think it's much more about a growing dissatisfaction with the political status quo, and that transcends age.

everywhere you look the centre and the left have failed to adapt or address those concerns in a way voters are looking for. the right are much better at playing the game.
 
Jark said:
Netherlands prides itself on being a "tolerant" society (a very different thing from actively embracing minorities) so it's a shock that somebody vocally anti Islam has done so well. it was only 20 years ago that a high profile candidate with very similar views was assassinated one week before the election.

populism is often spoken about as a monolith but the way it taps into societal concerns varies vastly from country to country. immigration is not a huge crisis here as in Italy, for example, where populists also got elected — the big political crisis here is an extreme shortage of housing, sky high rents and mortgages in flux.
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Really? I mean, obviously you're much closer to the ground than I am, but I almost feel like this is probably coloured a fair bit by a perspective from living in Amsterdam. That high profile candidate that got assassinated had been doing well with a primarily anti-immigration platform, and VVD going full Theresa May and having such an anti-migrant platform - after collapsing the government over asylum seekers - certainly gives the impression that there's a profound amount of discontent and difficulty with immigration on the right of Dutch society, for PVV to be so big, the main governing party of the right in VVD to be consumed by a sense it needed to deal with it as the main election issue (and their tone and approach on the topic to influence their choice of leader so much), and for there to still be change left over for support for other hardline/populist parties of the right like Thierry Baudet's and BBB.
 
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Penelope said:
Really? I mean, obviously you're much closer to the ground than I am, but I almost feel like this is probably coloured a fair bit by a perspective from living in Amsterdam. That high profile candidate that got assassinated had been doing well with a primarily anti-immigration platform, and VVD going full Theresa May and having such an anti-migrant platform - after collapsing the government over asylum seekers - certainly gives the impression that there's a profound amount of discontent and difficulty with immigration on the right of Dutch society, for PVV to be so big, the main governing party of the right in VVD to be consumed by a sense it needed to deal with it as the main election issue (and their tone and approach on the topic to influence their choice of leader so much), and for there to still be change left over for support for other hardline/populist parties of the right like Thierry Baudet's and BBB.
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I mean, you're not contradicting anything I've said. people on the right do indeed have strong views about immigration. but the number of people arriving is not putting pressure on the system in a way that can be seen in Italy and the UK, and immigration does not constantly rule the press or the national dialogue.

a lot of the people leaning right are not doing so as a specifically anti Islam or anti immigration protest vote, imo. more an anti politics/status quo vote. Wilders has done well in spite of representing those views, not because of it.

anyway his words since last night don't scream confidence that he'll find enough partners to form a government. he's having to downplay a lot of his own rhetoric.
 
I’m not a farmer but I would’ve thought having a steady and predictable climate would be a big part of it! GUESS NOT! The girls better start learning how to cultivate FIGS!
 
Well there's precedent for this with all the UK fish and farm people ruining their businesses by voting en masse for Brexit.
 
VoR said:
Isn’t a lot of it also about farmers objecting to climate change policies?
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big ron said:
This is all because of Nitrogen.
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Its a big part. The government wanted to bring nitrogen levels down in farming, which was industrialised post war. The farmers got pissed off, the far right latched onto it claimed the government wanted to decimate farming regions and build migrant towns to protect the urban elites, or something ridiculous.

Before the industrialisation of food production, the country was made up of a lot of small subsistence farms, so lots of people have strong connections to farming through family, and so the far right has leveraged this to gain popularity amongst farmers and this has trickled down.

Its not the only thing, but yeah, cow farts are to blame.
 
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